KARACHI: Urea offtake in September 2026 stood at 611,000 tons, down 13% month-on-month but up 42% year-on-year, according to provisional data.
The month-on-month decline was likely due to higher channel inventory after elevated August offtake, while the year-on-year growth may have been supported by a shift toward nitrogenous fertilizers amid high phosphate nutrient prices, analysts said.
Company-wise trends were mixed. FFC was expected to regain market share with 261,000 tons of urea offtake, followed by EFERT at 218,000 tons, Fatima at 102,000 tons and AGL at 30,000 tons. FFC's market share was projected to rise to 43% in September from 32% in August, while EFERT's share was expected to fall to 36% from 47%.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, industry urea offtake was expected to rise 28% to 1,892,000 tons in the third quarter of 2026. EFERT was projected to lead growth with offtake surging 175% QoQ to 711,000 tons. Fatima was expected to post a 13% QoQ increase to 369,000 tons, while FFC was likely to register a 6% QoQ decline to 756,000 tons.
For the first nine months of 2026, industry urea offtake was expected to reach 4,403,000 tons, up 5% year-on-year from 4,205,000 tons in the same period a year earlier. Sherman Securities attributed the increase to relatively better farm economics.
Total industry stocks declined to 645,000 tons from 1,148,000 tons in the same period last year. EFERT held the largest inventory at 519,000 tons, followed by FFC at 87,000 tons and Fatima at 29,000 tons.
Risks to valuation include lower international and local urea and DAP prices, continued production from closed fertilizer units, gas curtailment, payment of the Gas Infrastructure Development Cess and changes in international DAP margins, the brokerage said.
