ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s power purchase price could rise to Rs27.309 per kilowatt-hour in calendar year 2027, with the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee Ltd. (CPPA) projecting a total procurement cost of Rs3.55 trillion under its base-case scenario for the upcoming tariff rebasing, reports said.
The projections are part of the rebasing of consumer-end electricity tariffs for ex-Wapda distribution companies, scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, 2027. The exercise will determine the revised reference costs that underpin electricity tariffs for the new period.
The agency’s forecast projects a power purchase price ranging from Rs25.883 per unit in an ideal scenario to Rs29.255 per unit in the second-worst-case scenario, reflecting the potential impact of fuel costs, exchange-rate movements and capacity payments on the electricity supply chain.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has scheduled a public hearing on the projections for Nov. 3, 2026, at 2 p.m. at Nepra Tower. Participation will also be available online through Zoom, and interested and affected parties have been invited to submit comments and objections.
Under the base case, CPPA-G assumed annual electricity demand growth of 2.60%, an exchange rate of Rs279 per U.S. dollar and electricity sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours to distribution companies.
Capacity charges account for the largest share of the projected cost, estimated at Rs1.91 trillion, or Rs14.717 per unit. Fuel costs are projected at Rs1.32 trillion, or Rs10.141 per unit, while variable operations and maintenance expenses are estimated at Rs70.58 billion, or Rs0.543 per unit.
Transmission-related costs and Ministry of Finance charges are projected at a combined Rs248.30 billion, or Rs1.909 per unit. The forecast indicates that capacity payments will remain a major component of electricity procurement costs, while fuel expenses and currency movements could further influence the overall price during 2027.
In the two worst-case scenarios, the rupee is assumed to weaken to Rs290 against the U.S. dollar, compared with Rs279 per dollar in the other scenarios. Under those assumptions, the projected purchase price rises to Rs28.835 per unit in Worst Case-I and Rs29.255 per unit in Worst Case-II.
The demand-sensitivity scenario assumes annual demand growth of just 0.70%, reducing electricity sales to 127,937 gigawatt-hours. The projected purchase price under that scenario stands at Rs27.568 per unit, reflecting lower sales volumes and revised capacity-cost assumptions.
A separate scenario examining the mix of re-gasified liquefied natural gas and gas places the projected purchase price at Rs26.441 per unit, while the ideal scenario estimates the cost at Rs25.883 per unit, primarily reflecting lower fuel expenses.
Across all six scenarios, the assumptions include a Karachi Interbank Offered Rate of 11.70%, a Secured Overnight Financing Rate of 3.98%, U.S. inflation of 2.10%, domestic inflation of 8.20% and National Grid Company losses of 2.50%.
The projected power purchase price will be subject to regulatory scrutiny as part of the rebasing process. It should not be interpreted as the final retail electricity tariff, which will depend on Nepra’s determinations and applicable taxes, duties, subsidies and other tariff components.
