Global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 has been sharply reduced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to 400,000 barrels per day, down from an estimate of 1.4 million barrels per day at the start of the year.
According to international media reports, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said the organization had revised its forecast because oil demand was growing more slowly than expected.
However, he said some of the demand growth deferred this year was expected to materialize in 2027, potentially boosting oil consumption next year.
This suggests that part of the additional oil demand anticipated for 2026 could shift into the following year rather than disappear entirely.
Changes in global oil demand forecasts are closely watched by energy markets, as they can influence oil-producing countries’ revenues and decisions on production levels.
Slower demand growth could put downward pressure on oil prices, although prices also depend on supply levels, geopolitical developments and disruptions to oil shipments.
OPEC’s revised outlook comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns over the security of global oil supplies.
The organization’s expectation of stronger demand in 2027 suggests it does not view the current slowdown as a lasting trend.
Oil shipments are also facing risks amid regional hostilities. According to the supplied report, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz following US and Israeli attacks, while Houthi actions have affected maritime security around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have added to concerns about supply disruptions.
