Oil prices edged lower on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to raise production targets from August, while recovering Gulf exports and higher Russian shipments signalled increased global supply.
Brent crude futures fell 24 cents, or 0.33%, to $71.88 per barrel at 0010 GMT, after settling 0.45% higher in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $68.58 per barrel. US markets were closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, resulting in no WTI settlement.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, agreed on Sunday to increase output targets by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. The adjustment follows similar increases announced for June and July.
However, analysts noted that the planned increase remains largely theoretical, as several members continue to struggle with production constraints and earlier disruptions linked to regional instability and logistics.
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IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the decision was broadly in line with expectations, adding that the impact may be limited as some producers are still ramping up output following recent disruptions.
Oil supply from key producers has been gradually recovering as earlier disruptions ease. A Reuters survey showed that OPEC output rose by 3.3 million barrels per day in June to 19.43 million barrels per day, rebounding from multi-decade lows.
Gulf exports also increased by more than 3 million barrels per day in June compared with May, surpassing 10 million barrels per day, although volumes remain below pre-conflict levels.
Meanwhile, Russian oil exports from western ports reached record highs in June and are expected to remain elevated in July. Industry sources said the increase is partly due to refinery damage caused by drone strikes, which has led Moscow to boost crude shipments.
Despite OPEC+ efforts to manage supply, rising production targets and improving export flows from major producers continue to keep pressure on oil prices, while markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply fluctuations.
