- A drone strike killed a senior Hamas leader and deputy political leader.
- Arouri was a key figure in Hamas's armed wing.
- The response could reshape the course of the conflict and influence Hezbollah's fortunes.
Arouri, a key figure in Hamas's armed wing, Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, and a close ally of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, was acting as a liaison between his group and Hezbollah while in Lebanon.
Before the outbreak of the 7 October war, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had warned that any targeted attack on Lebanese soil would prompt a "powerful response."
The nature of this response, amid heightened hostilities, could reshape the course of the conflict and influence Hezbollah's fortunes.
But Hezbollah and its Iranian allies know the shape of their reply now, in the burning heat of hostilities, could change the shape of this war - and Hezbollah's fortunes.
It was only a matter of time before Israel would target Hamas leaders outside Gaza.
In November, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning that Israel would "operate against Hamas leaders wherever they are." Months earlier, he explicitly mentioned Arouri, who had been on the US terrorism list with a $5 million (£4 million) bounty on his head since 2018. While confirming or denying assassinations is not typical for Israel, the prolonged conflict has seen Israel engaging in a history of targeted killings, retaliation, and revenge.
Reprisals are now anticipated by Israel, with Hamas leaders and their allies issuing calls for action from the occupied West Bank and beyond. Before this event, Hamas had sought to limit its engagement to verbal confrontations and restricted attacks along its southern border with Israel to avoid dragging Lebanon into another costly conflict.
The killing of a pivotal Hamas official, acting as a crucial link to Hezbollah and Iran in Beirut's southern suburbs, has disrupted its calculations. Hamas is likely considering short-term spectacular strikes while weighing its longer-term strategy. Despite strong support along Lebanon's southern frontier, memories of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war remain vivid, adding to the challenges faced by a country currently grappling with multiple crises.
Additionally, it is no secret that senior Israeli figures have been advocating to seize this opportunity to eliminate Hezbollah's threats to its northern communities.
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