DETROIT: Toyota Motor is steadily narrowing the gap with General Motors in the US auto market, as growing demand for hybrid vehicles boosts the Japanese automaker while momentum in the electric vehicle (EV) segment weakens.
A new forecast released Wednesday by Cox Automotive shows Toyota is expected to post a nearly 1% rise in US sales for the first half of the year, reaching about 1.25 million units.
Meanwhile, General Motors is projected to record a 7.2% decline, with sales falling to around 1.33 million vehicles.
The shrinking difference between the two automakers has revived speculation that Toyota could challenge GM for the top position in US sales by year-end, depending on market performance in the coming months.
“At these rates, GM may be looking over their shoulder here when we get to the year’s end, that Toyota could potentially overtake them,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist and director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. He added that while this is not yet an official forecast, the trend remains “concerning for General Motors.”
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The projected gap of 83,255 vehicles would be the closest margin between the two companies since 2021, when Toyota briefly surpassed GM during pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. GM has otherwise held the top US sales position since 1931.
Toyota’s recent gains are being driven largely by strong hybrid sales, supported by its long-standing leadership in the segment and continued rollout of new models, including select electric vehicles.
In contrast, GM has focused heavily on fully electric vehicles and has offered limited hybrid options across its brands, a strategy analysts say has left it more vulnerable as consumer preferences shift.
“The story is hybrids are having their moment,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive.
Cox Automotive expects overall US vehicle sales to decline by 3% in the first half of the year. EV sales are projected to drop by 23.3%, while hybrid sales are forecast to rise by about 10%, highlighting a clear shift in market demand.
