ISLAMABAD: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has projected that federal tax collections will reach PKR 14.5 trillion in fiscal year 2026-27, an 11.7% increase from the current year’s expected haul, according to the FBR’s revenue forecasting report released Tuesday.
The projected increase of PKR 1.517 trillion is based solely on autonomous growth tied to macroeconomic indicators, including gross domestic product expansion, industrial output and trade activity. The estimate excludes any discretionary policy interventions such as new taxes, rate changes or the withdrawal of exemptions.
“The forecast isolates the structural responsiveness of the tax system to economic expansion without incorporating discretionary policy interventions,” the FBR said in the report.
Revenue officials described the projected 11.7% growth as moderate but stable, broadly aligned with expected improvements in economic activity. However, the agency cautioned that external shocks, exchange rate volatility, shifts in tax compliance or policy changes could alter actual collections.
Under the baseline projections, direct taxes are forecast to rise to PKR 7.366 trillion, requiring annual growth of 14.5%, driven by expected gains in GDP, corporate profitability and improved taxpayer compliance. Sales tax collections are projected at PKR 4.735 trillion, up 9.3%, supported by anticipated growth in consumption, large-scale manufacturing and imports.
Revenue from customs duties is estimated at PKR 1.496 trillion, while Federal Excise Duty collections are forecast at PKR 902 billion, reflecting expected trends in imports, sector-specific production and policy continuity.
The FBR said the baseline estimates would serve as a benchmark for measuring the impact of any new taxation measures introduced through the federal budget. Those effects will be incorporated separately by the relevant departments.
The report also highlighted a structural shift in Pakistan’s tax mix, with direct taxes projected to account for about 50% of total revenue in FY 2026-27. The FBR said the growing share of income-based taxation reflects progress toward a more balanced system by reducing reliance on indirect taxes while improving fiscal sustainability through stronger documentation and compliance reforms.
