HONG KONG: China recorded a historic trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, driven by resilient exports to emerging and alternative markets that offset a sharp decline in shipments to the United States, official customs data showed Wednesday.
Exports rose 5.5% year on year to $3.77 trillion, while imports were largely flat at $2.58 trillion, pushing the surplus well above 2024’s $992 billion. The surplus crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in November, reaching $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of the year.
Momentum continued into December, with exports rising 6.6% from a year earlier, exceeding economists’ expectations and accelerating from November’s 5.9% growth. Imports also rebounded, increasing 5.7% year on year, compared with 1.9% growth in November.
Economists say exports are likely to remain a key pillar of China’s economy despite rising geopolitical tensions and trade frictions.
“We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.
China’s exports to the United States fell 20% in 2025, reflecting renewed trade tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office and intensified tariff measures. However, the decline was largely offset by stronger shipments to other regions.
Exports to Africa surged 26%, while shipments to Southeast Asia rose 13%, the European Union 8%, and Latin America 7%.
Strong global demand for semiconductors, electronic components, and manufacturing inputs, along with rising car exports, helped underpin export growth, analysts said.
China’s export strength has helped keep overall economic growth near the government’s official target of around 5%, but it has also heightened concerns among trading partners about an influx of low-cost Chinese goods undermining domestic industries.
China faces a “severe and complex” external trade environment in 2026, Wang Jun, vice minister of the General Administration of Customs, told reporters in Beijing. Still, he said the country’s “foreign trade fundamentals remain solid.”
The International Monetary Fund has urged Beijing to address structural imbalances by reducing reliance on exports and strengthening domestic demand.
China’s domestic economy continues to be weighed down by a prolonged property sector downturn, triggered by a crackdown on excessive borrowing that led to widespread developer defaults. Weak consumer confidence has limited the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at boosting spending.
While authorities have rolled out trade-in subsidies encouraging purchases of energy-efficient appliances and vehicles, economists say the impact has been modest.
“We expect domestic demand growth to stay tepid,” Rong said. “The policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker than last year particularly the fiscal subsidy program for consumer goods.”
Looking ahead, Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, forecasts export growth of about 3% in 2026, down from 5.5% in 2025. With imports expected to remain subdued, he said China’s trade surplus is likely to stay above $1 trillion this year.
