Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $118,399 early on July 11 during Asian trading hours, marking another key milestone in the ongoing bull market. Unlike previous euphoric peaks, this breakout shows a calmer and more structurally sound rally. In a June 11 analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Avocado Onchain highlighted that several key indicators suggest the market hasn’t overheated.
The MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, currently sits at 2.2. This level remains well below the overheated threshold of 2.7 observed during the March and December 2024 peaks, indicating relatively moderate speculation in the market.
Investor behavior has also shifted noticeably. In previous bull market peaks, short-term holders—wallets that held BTC for less than a month—accounted for about 30% of the market. Today, that share has dropped to 15%. With fewer short-term players in the mix, the market faces less volatility and a reduced risk of sudden selloffs.
Other indicators point to similar conclusions. The Short-Term Holder SOPR, which measures profit-taking among recent buyers, hasn’t shown a significant spike, indicating that there’s little sell pressure in the market.
Meanwhile, miners typically early sellers during market tops—are staying relatively quiet. The Miner Position Index continues to drift lower, and some mining firms are now accumulating Bitcoin instead of selling it.
According to another CryptoQuant analysis, retail investors remain largely absent from the market. Their “Spot Retail Activity through Trading Frequency Surge” metric still sits in the gray zone, indicating that retail traders have not yet returned.
Historically, retail frenzy has marked late-stage bull market peaks. Since institutions and exchange-traded funds are currently driving the trend, the lack of retail participation suggests the market top may still be far off.
Analysts are closely watching the \$106,500 and \$101,200 zones, which represent the average cost basis for holders who bought Bitcoin in the past one to three months. These short-term support levels may offer valuable clues about the market’s next move.
The upward trend is likely to continue if Bitcoin holds above the \$106,500 and \$101,200 support levels. A drop below these zones could trigger short-term selling, but it might also attract new buyers looking to enter at lower prices.
Overall, this rally appears more sustainable than previous ones. With steady institutional interest, stable on-chain signals, and retail investors still largely on the sidelines, Bitcoin seems to have more room to rise without the usual chaos that surrounds market tops.
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